Cake companies can look to completely new formats in their NPD (New Product Development), given the interest in these from one in four users. For example, companies could create their own versions of the hybrid sweet treats (eg cronut, duffin) which have garnered a lot of media attention in the foodservice arena.
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Table of Content
Introduction
Definitions
Abbreviations
Executive Summary
The market
Figure 1: UK retail value sales and forecast of cakes and cake bars, 2009-19
Market factors
Strong competition dents demand for cakes
The popularity of home baking stifles sales of shop-bought cakes
The growth in over-55s continues to hinder the market
Companies, brands and innovation
Own-label accounts for over half of the cakes/cake bars market
Figure 2: Leading brands’ shares in the UK cakes and cake bars market, by value, 2013/14*
Own-label continues to dominate new launches
No end to the rise in adspend in cakes
The consumer
Cakes enjoy strong family appeal
Figure 3: Types of cakes/cake bars bought or eaten in the past six months, April 2014
Cakes are most commonly eaten as a treat
Figure 4: Reasons for eating cakes/cake bars, April 2014
Cakes stand out for being good for sharing and filling
Figure 5: Most common qualities associated with different types of snacks/desserts, April 2014
Figure 6: Other qualities associated with different types of snacks/desserts, April 2014
One in three stock up on promotions
Figure 7: Attitudes towards buying cakes/cake bars, April 2014
New flavours hold strong appeal
Figure 8: Attitudes towards cakes and cake bars, April 2014
What we think
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Issues and Insights
Cake brands can encourage a wider range of usage occasions through marketing
The facts
The implications
Exciting innovation is needed to help heighten consumer engagement with the category
The facts
The implications
Opportunities for better-for-you cakes through sugar alternatives and healthier ingredients
The facts
The implications
Trend Application
Trend: Sense of the Intense
Trend: Make it Mine
Mintel Futures: Brand Intervention
Market Drivers
Key points
Cakes and cake bars are losing out to other snack sectors
Figure 9: UK retail value sales performance of selected markets competing with cakes and cake bars, 2012-13
The boom in home baking erodes cake sales
Health concerns dampen demand for cakes
The ageing population and growth in small households present challenges
Strengths and Weaknesses
Strengths
Weaknesses
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Who’s Innovating?
Key points
Own-label continues to dominate new launches
Figure 10: Share of product launches within the UK cake, pastries and sweet goods market, own-label versus branded, 2009-14
Asda, Morrisons and Tesco take the lead in NPD in 2013
Figure 11: Share of product launches within the UK cake, pastries and sweet goods market, by company, 2013
Figure 12: Share of product launches within the UK cake, pastries and sweet goods market, by company, 2009-14
Cross-category inspiration
Cadbury Mini Rolls take inspiration from the ice cream category
Mondelēz moves into kids’ cakes with the Barny brand
A jump in the prevalence of the ‘no additives/preservatives’ claim in 2013
Figure 13: Share of product launches within the UK cake, pastries and sweet goods market, by claim, 2009-14
Low levels of ‘better-for-you’ NPD…
…although ‘diet’ products risk a backlash
Supermarkets expand their gluten-free offering
Seasonal events inspire NPD, with Halloween gaining traction
Market Size and Forecast
Key points
Volume and value sales in decline
Figure 14: UK retail sales and forecast of cakes and cake bars, by value and volume, 2009-19
The future
Figure 15: UK retail volume sales and forecast of cakes and cake bars, 2009-19
Figure 16: UK retail value sales and forecast of cakes and cake bars, 2009-19
Factors used in the forecast
Segment Performance
Key points
A shift away from large cakes towards single-serve products
Figure 17: UK retail value sales of cakes and cakes bars, by segment, 2011-13
Figure 18: UK retail volume sales of cakes and cakes bars, by segment, 2011-13
Seasonal cakes suffer the biggest decline
Market Share
Key points
Own-label accounts for over half of the cakes/cake bars market
Figure 19: Leading brands’ shares in the UK cakes and cake bars market, by value, 2013/14*
Figure 20: Leading brands’ shares in the UK cakes and cake bars market, by value and volume, 2012/13 and 2013/14
Losses for Premier Foods’ leading brands
McVitie’s, Fabulous Bakin’ Boys are all in decline
Soreen benefits from its healthier positioning and grows its share
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